After a highly-anticipated wait, Oppenheimer took home Best Picture and six other awards, including Best Director for Christopher Nolan. It has the opportunity to do so again in 2025, though it’s safe to say that Wicked and Oppenheimer are two very different movies.

Historically, there have been plenty of musicals that have garnered Best Picture nominations, but they haven’t always been successful in winning the category. That could change this year, especially with Wicked ing Netflix’s Emilia Pérez, also a musical, as a Best Picture hopeful. Wicked’s reviews and audience scores have been glowing (their Rotten Tomatoes scores are at 92% and 99%, respectively, which is quite incredible) and while that alone isn’t enough to propel it to the Oscars, it surely helps its awards campaign and chances. While the Best Picture category has favored dramas, Wicked’s potential win could be historic.

Wicked’s Best Picture Win Could Break Chicago’s 21-Year-Old Oscars Streak

Not since Chicago has a musical won Best Picture at the Oscars. That was in 2003. Other films have been nominated over the last 20+ years — Les Misérables, Moulin Rouge!, La La Land, among several — but they’ve all been beaten out by other films (typically dramas/dramedies like Green Book, A Beautiful Mind, CODA). Currently, Wicked’s odds are high and it shares a lot of similarities to Chicago. Both musicals center on the relationship between its female protagonists, the spectacle is spellbinding, the songs are memorable, and the adaptations are based on beloved stage musicals.

Wicked has received far better critical and audience ratings than Cats, which was also based on a legendary stage musical. The latter has a 19% critics score and a 53% audience score. Both musicals are distributed by Universal Pictures.

The year Chicago won Best Picture, it faced competition from The Pianist, Gangs of New York, and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers — and yet it still took home the top prize. It also marked director Rob Marshall’s first Best Picture nomination and win. And though he would go on to garner more Oscar nominations with films like Into the Woods and Nine (also musicals), Chicago was Marshall's first and last Best Picture award. Wicked director Jon M. Chu follows a similar trajectory.

Chu’s directed big movies like Crazy Rich Asians and the musical In the Heights, but Wicked would be his first film to make it to the Oscars. While the director may not be as well-known with Academy voters as some of the more big-name filmmakers, we could be seeing Chicago’s history repeat itself with Wicked, which will also have major competition from the likes of Conclave and Anora. At this point, its chances of being nominated are practically a given, but with the discussion surrounding its cast, visuals, and overall production, Wicked might defy gravity.

Wicked’s Best Picture Chances Could Be Hurt By It Being A Musical

But That Doesn't Mean Its Chances Of At Least Being Nominated Are Squandered

Wicked being a traditional musical could hinder its Best Picture chances. It could be seen as a film that is only accessible to a specific audience and might not be taken very seriously by Academy voters. A musical hasn't won Best Picture in over two decades — and only ten musicals have won Best Picture altogether — suggesting a shift away from extravagance. The industry has changed overall since Chicago’s Best Picture win: streamers like Netflix have entered the awards fray, audiences go to the movies a lot less, and a non-English language film has won in the category.

While musicals aren’t for everyone, Wicked debuted more than 21 years ago and was a smashing success long before it was made into a film. The film will surely garner Golden Globe nominations, which could its journey towards the Oscars. That Wicked screened to approximately 900 Academy voters — a huge turnout — is a good thing. It means there’s an interest in the film. With Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo being Best ing Actress and Best Actress hopefuls, respectively, and the film being a shoo-in to be nominated, Wicked's Best Picture win doesn’t seem so out of reach.