Christopher Nolan stands to make a lot of money from theaters in most key markets will have to be reopened if Tenet is to play.
WB and Nolan's desire to be first out of the gate in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak is understandable, but there's also a business side to this discussion. Tenet was not a cheap film to produce, sporting a budget of $200 million before marketing costs are factored in. Due to that price tag, Tenet has to earn a pretty penny at the box office in order to be profitable, and thanks to a deal the studio cut with Nolan, the need for Tenet to post strong numbers is even higher.
Deadline's report on how a potential Tenet release date delay could affect Wonder Woman 1984 and other movies details Nolan's deal with WB, which would see him earn "20% of Tenet's first dollar gross." With that percentage going to Nolan instead of the studio, it will be of utmost importance for Tenet to be a major hit. It's also important to keep in mind movie theaters keep a set percentage of ticket sales, so WB will be sharing a lot of their revenue.
This underscores how precarious a situation Tenet's premiere is and why WB might be better off pushing it back. Even if it's safe for most theaters to open back up come July, there will most assuredly be social distancing regulations in place that cap auditorium capacity. There's also the possibilitylimit the amount of money films like Tenet and Mulan can make at the box office, so it may not make sense to release them at this point in time. It's true those movies could theoretically have strong legs due to lack of competition, but there's no guarantee their grosses would be what the studios are looking for - even considering the circumstances.
Obviously, WB made this deal with Nolan well before the coronavirus pandemic was an issue and Tenet was poised to be one of 2020's biggest movies. This agreement is just something else to keep in mind now when discussing Tenet's impending release. It's possible the two parties could renegotiate so Nolan takes less of the first dollar gross in anticipation of Tenet having a softer performance than expected. That would make things a little easier for WB, but they're still looking to recoup a $200+ million investment. In all likelihood, Tenet will have to clear $400 million globally just to break even, which is why word is WB needs roughly 80% of theaters worldwide to be up and running to confidently release Tenet in July. At this point, that seems overly optimistic, so it'll be interesting to see what happens.
Source: Deadline
