UPDATE: 2024/12/22 08:05 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN
Sonic 3 Falls Far Short Of Original Franchise-Best $72 Million+ Debut Projections, Still Handily Beats Mufasa
This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 release marking the third live-action feature-length installment in the video game adaptation franchise that also includes the Paramount+ spinoff show Knuckles. Meanwhile, the Disney photorealistic CG musical Mufasa is a prequel to their 2019 remake The Lion King, which grossed $1.66 billion, making it the highest-grossing animated movie of all time until that record was overtaken by Inside Out 2 in 2024.
Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is projected to take No. 1 at the domestic box office with an estimated 3-day opening weekend total of $62 million. While this has seen it fall considerably short of its original projections that had it potentially beating the debut of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($72.1 million) for a franchise-best record, this is still higher than the original Sonic ($58 million) and more than enough to allow the sequel to overtake Moana 2, which has topped the chart for three weekends in a row following its mid-week release over Thanksgiving.
Sonic is also easily speeding past Mufasa: The Lion King, which has a projected domestic opening of $35 million, a total that will see it debut at No. 2. This falls below its initial early projections of $50 million, though its Saturday projections were already showing it having fallen to a range between $36 and $38 million, so its weekend has not taken as sharp a downhill turn as Sonic. See the full Top 5 domestic chart for the weekend below:
# |
Title |
3-Day Total |
Cumulative (Domestic) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
$62 million |
$62 million (weekend 1) |
2 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
$35 million |
$35 million (weekend 1) |
3 |
Wicked |
$13.5 million |
$383.9 million (weekend 5) |
4 |
Moana 2 |
$13.1 million |
$359 million (weekend 4) |
5 |
Homestead |
$6 million |
$6 million (weekend 1) |
There has been a lot of movement on the chart considering the influx of new releases, which also includes the Neal McDonough-led Angel Studios movie Homestead, which debuted at No. 5 with an estimated 3-day haul of $6 million. The holdover Thanksgiving hits Wicked and Moana 2 had been battling for the No. 3 position, with Wicked pulling ahead by $0.4 million, falling just one position on the chart after landing at No. 2 the previous weekend. Moana 2 slid much further, falling from No. 1 to No. 4, though it ed the $350 million domestic milestone in the meantime.
Meanwhile, the third Thanksgiving blockbuster, Ridley Scott's Gladiator II, has fallen off the board entirely, slipping from No. 4 to No. 6 with $4.4 million. Also departing the Top 5 is Kraven the Hunter, dropping a staggering 72% with $3.3 million seeing it plummet from No. 3 to No. 7 in its second weekend. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim has also had a tough sophomore weekend, dropping from No. 5 to No. 9 with $1.2 million likewise seeing it fall 72%.
What This Means For Sonic And Mufasa
The Sonic Franchise Has A Bright Future
The Sonic the Hedgehog franchise may have just cemented itself as a major contender by trouncing Disney this weekend. After a string of flops in 2023 that included The Marvels, Wish, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, and Haunted Mansion, Disney came roaring back at the box office in 2024 with record-smashing hits including Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine. It seemed possible that Mufasa would their number, considering the fact that it is the follow-up to the tenth highest-grossing movie of all time.
On top of Inside Out 2 becoming the highest-grossing animated movie of all time, Deadpool & Wolverine became the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time.
The international grosses for the Mufasa release have already pushed its global opening to a much firmer standing of $122.2 million, helping it get much closer to its break-even point. Because movies typically need to earn back at least two and a half times their production costs, this milestone is likely somewhere around $500 million given its roughly $200 million budget.
However, the fact that the Disney movie was handily defeated in the domestic sphere by Sonic 3, which is part of a franchise that has so far topped out at between $300 and $400 million worldwide per installment, speaks to the video game brand's continued rise in theaters, even though it took something of a nosedive in the tail end of its opening weekend. The Sonic 4, which has already been announced, could now be in a position where it might scare other titles away from premiering on the same weekend.
Our Take On The Weekend's Box Office
Sonic And Mufasa Both Have Great Potential
Ultimately, both Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King will probably benefit from long tails, continuing to rack up higher and higher domestic grosses as the holiday season continues into the new year. While there is a whole host of new releases coming midweek on Christmas Day, namely Babygirl, Nosferatu, The Fire Inside, and A Complete Unknown, none of them are the same type of blockbuster tentpole. While the Disney movie may never catch up with Sonic in North America, both have the chance to continue dominating the chart in tandem for weeks to come.
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Source: Variety
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Sonic the Hedgehog 3
8/10- Release Date
- December 20, 2024
- Runtime
- 110 minutes
- Director
- Jeff Fowler
Cast
Sonic (voice)
Dr. Robotnik / Gerald Robotnik
WHERE TO WATCH
StreamingRENTBUYSonic the Hedgehog 3 reunites Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails as they face a formidable new adversary, Shadow. With Shadow's unprecedented powers posing a significant threat, Team Sonic seeks an unexpected alliance to thwart his plans and safeguard the planet.
- Writers
- Josh Miller, Patrick Casey, John Whittington
- Main Genre
- Adventure
- Distributor(s)
- Paramount Pictures
-
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Mufasa: The Lion King
7/10- Release Date
- December 18, 2024
- Runtime
- 118 minutes
- Director
- Barry Jenkins
Cast
Aaron PierreMufasa (voice)
Kelvin Harrison Jr.Taka (voice)
WHERE TO WATCH
StreamingRENTBUYMufasa: The Lion King explores the origins of the beloved character Mufasa, focusing on his youth as a lost cub who encounters Taka, a royal heir. Their meeting initiates an epic journey of self-discovery and destiny, featuring a group of misfit companions navigating the challenges of their world.
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