Despite its many controversies, Oscars have been all about surprises – both good and bad – since its nominees were announced in January 2025. This year’s ceremony has been plagued by controversies since last year, with one movie, in particular, receiving a lot of backlash. Said movie is the musical crime movie Emilia Pérez, written and directed by Jacques Audiard and loosely based on a chapter of the French novel Écoute, by Boris Razon.

Emilia Pérez tells the story of Mexican cartel leader Juan “Manitas” Del Monte (Karla Sofía Gascón), who hires lawyer Rita Mora (Zoe Saldaña) to help him disappear so he can undergo gender-affirming surgery and live an authentic life. Years later, Manitas, now living as Emilia Pérez, wants to reunite with her children, but that forces her to confront her criminal past. Emilia Pérez is the most nominated movie at the 2025 Oscars, and despite its many controversies, backlash, and important issues, it’s guaranteed to win in, at least, one big category thanks to a decades-long trend.

Emilia Pérez Is The Favorite To Win The Best International Feature Film Oscar

Despite Competition, Emilia Pérez Is The Clear Favorite In This Category

Emilia Pérez has nominations in most of the Oscars’ biggest categories, among them Best International Feature Film. As the name says, this award is given to a feature-length motion picture produced outside the United States, and though the nominees are usually non-English language movies, there are some that are in English. In Emilia Pérez’s case, the movie is mostly in Spanish with a couple of English dialogs here and there, and what earned it a nomination in this category is that it’s a French production.

Despite having some interesting competition in the category of Best International Feature Film, most notably the Danish drama The Girl with the Needle and the animated Latvian movie Flow, Emilia Pérez is, at the time of writing, the big favorite to win in this category. Now, Emila Pérez has been surrounded by controversy for months and for various (and very important) reasons, such as its bad representation of trans people, Mexican culture, and a lot more.

However, this hasn’t stopped Emilia Pérez from winning at other awards ceremonies and in similar categories like the Oscars’ Best International Feature Film. Some of these are the BAFTA’s Best Film Not in the English Language and the Golden Globes’ Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language awards, and it’s most likely on its way to winning this category at the Oscars.

Emilia Pérez's Best Picture Nomination Guarantees An International Oscar Win

Emilia Pérez Is Nominated In Two Big Categories

In addition to being nominated for Best International Feature Film, Emilia Pérez is nominated for Best Picture, which only adds to its possibility of winning in the former category. Over the last 55 years, the Best International Feature Film nominees that are also nominated for Best Picture have won in the former category. Recent examples of this are Amour, Roma, Parasite, All Quiet on the Western Front, and The Zone of Interest, giving Emilia Pérez even bigger chances of winning in this category, despite all the controversies it’s still facing.

Parasite won both Best International Feature Film and Best Picture, becoming the first non-English language movie to win the latter category.

The Oscars' Best International Feature Film & Best Picture Trend Will Officially Be Broken This Year

Two Big Nominees, Only 1 Winner

The trend of movies being nominated for Best International Feature Film and Best Picture winning in the former has been 100% accurate in the last five decades, but this will inevitably end this year. Even if Emilia Pérez takes the Oscar in this category, the trend will be over because there’s another movie with a double nomination just like Audiard’s film. The Brazilian political biographical drama I’m Still Here is also nominated in both categories, and it could be the big surprise as Best International Feature Film.

Of course, both Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here can’t win Best International Feature Film (ties are very rare occurrences in Oscars history), so no matter who wins between these two, one of them will end up breaking this specific trend of movies nominated for this and Best Picture. As mentioned above, it’s possible that the category of Best International Feature Film could have a surprise up its sleeve and neither of these movies will win, which would still be breaking the trend.

Despite various controversies, backlash, and other issues, the 2025 Oscars are already looking quite interesting and exciting, with few clear favorites and plenty of room for surprises. Best International Feature Film isn’t a category that delivers surprises often, but this year could be the exception thanks to its strong competitors.