Summary

• Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer is expected to win Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars with 13 nominations.
• Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, and Killers of the Flower Moon are strong contenders for Best Picture.
• Past Lives faces slim Best Picture chances with only 2 nominations, especially without a Best Director or Actress nod.

The Oscars 2024 race is nearing its conclusion, and the official list of Best Picture nominations gives a few movies the hope of winning the Academy Awards' top prize. Hollywood's biggest awards ceremony has undergone significant changes in recent years that have brought in an expanded and more diverse voting body, adding more variety in genre and style to Best Picture than before. With 10 guaranteed nominees every year now, early predictions for the 2024 Oscars nominees put Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer and Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon as frontrunners.

Many other 2023 movies went through the awards season process of jockeying and campaigning for the hopes of earning a Best Picture nomination in January 2024. All the precursor awards and pundit predictions outlined a strong group of favorites ahead of the official 2024 Oscar nomination announcements. It came as no surprise that Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon received nominations. Now that the full list of 2024 Best Picture Oscar nominees are known, only one will emerge as the winner. Screen Rant's predicted Best Picture standings and winner are:

Anatomy of a Fall was the only Best Picture nominee not included on Screen Rant's predicted list of nominees.

10 Past Lives

Two Oscar nominations

Past Lives was pinpointed as a likely 2024 Oscars contender before the 2023 ceremony even took place. The emotional romantic drama had its debut at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2023, which is where the first wave of rave reviews came from. The movie had a slow rollout as it was taken to many other film festivals ahead of its June theatrical release. Past Lives is among the best-reviewed movies of 2023, and the 98% Rotten Tomatoes score started bringing in recognition, including a Best Motion Picture - Drama nomination from the Golden Globes.

Its chances at the 2024 Oscars and winning Best Picture appear to be rather slim, though. Past Lives only received two nominations total, which is the lowest amount for any of the 2024 Oscars Best Picture nominees. Its Best Original Screenplay nomination is a big spot to get, but it would take winning that award to give Past Lives any real shot at taking home the top prize. Without a Celine Song nomination for Best Director or Greta Lee contending in Best Actress, Past Lives chances of winning, even with the preferential ballot, are slim to none.

9 Maestro

Seven Oscar nominations

Five years after A Star Is Born received a Best Picture nomination, Bradley Cooper's biopic about the legendary composer Leonard Bernstein has repeated the same success. While it was always thought to be an awards contender, Maestro's likelihood of receiving a Best Picture nomination at the 2024 Oscars increased with its debut at the Venice International Film Festival, where it was nominated for the top prize, the Golden Lion. Although the movie proved a bit more controversial upon its release, Maestro's Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture - Drama gave it additional .

Maestro managed to be on the higher side of total nominations among the 204 Best Picture nominees, as it earned seven total. This included key nominations in Best Original Screenplay and Cinematography, while Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan both secured acting nominations. Cooper's miss in Best Director could be costly for the film's chances of actually winning Best Picture, though. Since it is not viewed as a clear favorite in any major categories and has not had the most favorable awards season, Maestro will have an uphill battle to deliver a surprising win.

8 American Fiction

Five Oscar nominations

Amazon Studios and MGM have seen American Fiction earn a Best Picture Oscar nomination in 2024. The directorial debut of Cord Jefferson looks to be among the biggest crowd-pleasers of the year, one that is only bolstered by the strong performances of Jeffrey Wright and Sterling K. Brown. Its most notable awards season victory so far is winning the People's Choice Award at TIFF following its premiere. The praise and adoration for American Fiction has only grown since then, including earning a Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy.

American Fiction's Best Picture winning chances are on the lower end of the spectrum. The movie performed quite well overall, earning five nominations in total. The Best Adapted Screenplay nomination strengthens American Fiction's case and it could pull off an upset in the category. Jeffrey Wright and Sterling K. Brown's acting nominations are not expected to translate to wins, though. Without Cord Jefferson sneaking into the Best Director race, American Fiction needed more momentum to really shake up preferential ballots.

7 Anatomy Of A Fall

Five Oscar nominations

Anatomy of a Fall is a strong contender in the 2024 Oscars Best Picture race. The hype for the French courtroom drama began in May 2023 after its debut at the 76th Cannes Film Festival. The reception was outstanding, propelling the movie to receive the festival's top prize, the Palme d'Or. Winning the Palme d'Or has been a precursor to a Best Picture nomination, with two out of the last three winners - Triangle of Sadness and Parasite - doing so. With a 96% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes, Anatomy of a Fall became firmly entrenched in the running.

The case for Anatomy of a Fall winning Best Picture was certainly strengthened during the Oscar nominations. The movie snagged crucial nominations in Best Original Screenplay and Film Editing, while Justine Triet surprised for Best Director and Sandra Hüller secured a Best Actress nomination. Anatomy of a Fall's five nominations overall gives it a strong path to rise through the ranks and emerge as a legitimate contender to win if it can build on notable wins elsewhere, such as its Golden Globe win for Best Motion Picture, Non-English Language.

6 Killers of the Flower Moon

Ten Oscar nominations

Martin Scorsese was expected to have one of the strongest Best Picture contenders for the 2024 Oscars with Killers of the Flower Moon. Its premiere at Cannes led to a rapturous response heralding the true story as the latest Scorsese masterpiece, bringing all three of its leads to be viewed as locks for their own Oscar nominations. Martin Scorsese's Oscars nomination history is significant, as he's had nine movies nominated in the biggest category, but only The Departed won. The career legacy angle gives Killers of the Flower Moon a strong narrative to win.

Killers of the Flower Moon was one of the biggest winners from the Oscar nominations, as it earned 10 nominations overall. The most important for its Best Picture chances are Film Editing and Martin Scorsese's Best Director nomination. Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro's nominations will bolster its case, but Leonardo DiCaprio missing out will hurt, as will its snub from Best Adapted Screenplay. Killers of the Flower Moon looks to be more on track to miss out on Best Picture than to deliver a surprise barring a big push to recognize Scorsese here.

5 Barbie

Eight Oscar nominations

The overall success of Barbie translated to a 2024 Oscars nomination for Best Picture. The movie sured all box office expectations on its way to becoming the biggest movie of 2023, and it now continued Greta Gerwig's Oscars streak. Her previous two movies, Little Women and Lady Bird, both received Best Picture nominations, so she's now three-for-three. The for Barbie's 2024 Oscars campaign can be seen with its various love from critics circles to dominating the 2024 Golden Globes nominations, where it tied for the second most nominations by a single film in history.

Still, Barbie's performance at the 2024 Oscars nominations was both a success and cause for concern when it comes to winning Best Picture. It received eight nominations overall but Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie were crucially snubbed for Best Director and Best Actress. The movie's biggest nominations came from Best Adapted Screenplay and Ryan Gosling and America Ferrera being recognized for their performances. While not typical, it will take Barbie's multiple snubs relaying into a rally for more for it in Best Picture.

4 The Holdovers

Five Oscar nominations

The Holdovers received its Best Picture Oscars nomination in 2024. Alexander Payne is no stranger to this success, as he delivered his first Best Picture nominee in 2012 with The Descendants. He has also won two Oscars for his screenplays, and The Holdovers is a strong contender for that award in 2024 too. From the initial reviews following the movie's debut at Telluride to its Golden Globes nomination for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy, The Holdovers was on the rise even before getting the coveted Best Picture nomination.

The Holdovers managed to fall middle-of-the-pack in of total Oscar nominations among the Best Picture nominees with five nominations overall. Alexander Payne not being recognized in Best Director might be difficult to overcome, but The Holdovers has emerged as a frontrunner elsewhere. Da'Vine Joy Randolph is the predicted Best ing Actress winner, while Paul Giamatti is certainly in the Best Actor race. If both performances secure wins and The Holdovers can surprise in Film Editing, its Best Picture chances will become much more real.

3 Poor Things

Eleven Oscar Nominations

Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone have ed forces again to create one of the biggest contenders to win the 2024 Oscars' Best Picture. Following their shared success with The Favourite in 2018, Poor Things has been lauded for its creativity and uniqueness ever since it premiered at Venice, where it won the prestigious Golden Lion award. The result greatly increased the chance of winning Best Picture. Recent Golden Lion winners that became Best Picture winners include Nomadland and The Shape of Water. Winning a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy can help too.

All the precursors pointed to Poor Things' dominance at the 2024 Oscars nominations. The movie earned 11 nominations overall, the second most for any film this year. This includes key nominees for Yorgos Lanthimos in Best Director, Emma Stone in Best Actress, Mark Ruffalo in Best ing Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, and Cinematography. Its chances of winning any of these categories are still quite strong, especially as Poor Things' campaign has grown and helped the movie gain more momentum.

2 The Zone of Interest

Five Oscar nominations

The return of Jonathan Glazer over a decade after his last movie helped position The Zone of Interest firmly in the Best Picture race. The historical drama focused on an Auschwitz commandant starting a life near a concentration camp has been heralded by critics for tackling difficult subjects and re-examining horrific events. The Zone of Interest had its world premiere at Cannes and continued to earn high praise at subsequent showings at Telluride and the Toronto International Film Festival. It then got a Golden Globe nomination for Best Motion Picture - Drama.

The Zone of Interest performed quite well at the Oscar nominations overall, as Glazer's movie earned five nominations. This included nominations for Best Adapted Screenplay, Best International Feature Film, and Best Director for Glazer. At this point, The Zone of Interest seems more likely to win Best International Feature than Best Picture, but a double win cannot be ruled out. Glazer's film has garnered strong , including from Steven Spielberg. If it manages to win in Adapted Screenplay or Director, the upset could be in store.

1 Oppenheimer (Winner)

Thirteen Oscar nominations

Oppenheimer winning Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars has been the most likely outcome for some time. Christopher Nolan's biopic about J. Robert Oppenheimer is arguably his best movie to date. A Nolan movie has never won Best Picture, but his movies have only received nominations twice before. Oppenheimer's case to win the award comes from the overall acclaim and success of the movie. The film has taken home the top prize at the BAFTA Awards, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, SAG Awards, PGA Awards, and National Board of Review

The 2024 Oscar nominations secured Oppenheimer's place as the frontrunner for Best Picture as Nolan's movie led the way with 13 nominations overall. This included Christopher Nolan in Best Director, Cillian Murphy in Best Actor, Emily Blunt in Best ing Actress, and Robert Downey Jr. in Best ing Actor, as well as nominations in Film Editing, Cinematography, Adapted Screenplay, and several other below-the-line categories. With Oppenheimer viewed as the favorite in many of these categories, winning Best Picture at the 2024 Oscars is all but assured.