The 2021 Oscar nominations have been revealed, but who will the winners be? The ceremony is scheduled for late April, and a lot can happen from now until the winners are announced - including how the studios' campaigns shake out. Frontrunners may fade, and late-breaking Academy favorites can easily pull ahead, but precursor awards combined with a film's Oscar nomination profile can show prognosticators what's up, what's down, and what's on the rise.
Oscar nomination morning has become almost synonymous with controversy regarding snubs, but there's plenty of history to celebrate with 2021's crop of nominees. While Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and One Night in Miami missed out on presumed Best Picture nods, this year represents the most diverse acting slate in Academy history, with Minari's Steven Yeun becoming the first Asian-American Best Actor nominee. On the other side of the camera, Chloé Zhao and Emerald Fennell are part of the first Best Director crop to include two women, with Zhao not only being the first woman to be nominated for four Oscars in one year but also the first Chinese-American woman nominated for Best Director. She and Minari director Lee Isaac Chung also represent only the fifth and sixth Asian directors in the category.
All of this history comes packaged with the most bizarre Oscar season in history, celebrating a year of film when most movie theaters were closed due to a global pandemic and viewers had to turn to streaming to catch the latest offerings. With voters sequestered in their bubbles and minimal screenings and campaign-funded dinners possible, Oscars 2021 is ripe for upsets and surprises, but here's how the winners look at this current moment of the race.
BEST PICTURE
- The Father
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Mank
- Minari
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland has swept awards season thus far, becoming the first film in history to win both the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival and the Toronto International Film Festival's Peoples Choice Award, before moving on to clinch the majority of critics' Best Film prizes and Best Picture at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. All that hardware is helpful, but could paint a target on the film's back at a fairly precarious stage of the race. With some time to go until the ceremony, it still remains to be seen if the Academy's largest voting branch, the actors, will want to give top prize to a fairly slowly-paced, plotless film featuring only two professional actors; critical darlings Boyhood and Roma certainly dominated the early parts of their respective awards seasons before falling short at the finish line. Should that be Nomadland's fate, look to Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Cast nominees Minari or The Trial of the Chicago 7 to spoil. At this stage, though, it's Nomadland's to lose.
Will and should win: Nomadland
Could win: Minari
Should've been nominated: Da 5 Bloods
BEST DIRECTOR
- Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
- Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
- David Fincher, Mank
- Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
- Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Whether or not Nomadland takes home Best Picture, this race is all but a lock. While there was initial projection that this might finally be David Fincher's year, general reception to Mank has been cool. Chloé Zhao, on the other hand, has dominated this category all season long and looks poised to sweep the rest of the way, making her only the second woman to win Best Director and the first Chinese-American woman winner in the Academy's history.
Will and should win: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Could win: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Should've been nominated: Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
BEST ACTRESS
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- s McDormand, Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
The Best Actress category has been all over the place this season, with Never Rarely Sometimes Always' Sidney Flanigan splitting critics prizes with Carey Mulligan all winter before Andra Day delivered a shocking win at the Golden Globes. Carey was back on top again at the Critics Choice Awards, but she now faces heavy competition from Viola Davis at the SAG Awards on April 4th. Davis would become only the second Black woman to win Best Actress at the Oscars, and there may be increased for her after the film's surprising snub for a Best Picture nomination. Still, Carey has never won, and this would be the perfect place to reward a film the Academy clearly loves.
Will win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Could win: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Should win: s McDormand, Nomadland
Should've been nominated: Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
BEST ACTOR
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Gary Oldman, Mank
- Steven Yeun, Minari
The trophy’s engraved, it’s just waiting to be picked up April 25th. Chadwick Boseman, whose life and career were cut shockingly short in 2020, will forever be Academy Award winner Chadwick Boseman, as it should be. In his final performance, he leaves it all on the table. It’ll be a worthy and bittersweet win.
Will and should win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could win: Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Should've been nominated: Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
BEST ING ACTRESS
- Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Lock it in: Glenn Close is going home empty-handed, tying Peter O'Toole's record for most Oscar nominations without a single win at eight. After that, this is truly anyone's game. Olivia Colman is clearly beloved and, as Sally Field can attest, when the Oscars like someone, they really, really like them. Seyfried could also surge, though Mank seems likely to be 2021's Irishman - lots of nominations, no wins. The critical darlings all season have been Yuh-Jung Youn and Maria Bakalova, with the latter being the only nominee in the category to clinch nods at Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, SAG, and the Oscars. Youn would be a fantastic winner, but it's just too difficult to root against Borat 2's Bakalova, whose win for playing Borat's feral but endearing daughter Tutar would be an anomaly in Academy history; such an out-and-out comedic performance has never won. Still, her win here is not out of the question, particularly since she went head-to-head with one of 2020's biggest villains, Rudy Giuliani himself.
Will and should win: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Could win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Should've been nominated: Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
BEST ING ACTOR
- Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami...
- Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
- Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
After the chaos and confusion of the Actress categories, this one seems like another safe lock. Daniel Kaluuya is clearly an Oscars favorite, defying the Academy's horror-bias with a nomination for his performance in Get Out. There still is hope for Sacha Baron Cohen, who has been a bit of a Man of the Year with his contrasting turns in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The Trial of the Chicago 7. However, Kaluuya has Critics Choice and the Globe under his belt, and seems likely to steamroll straight to the Oscar.
Will and should win: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Could win: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should've been nominated: Orion Lee, First Cow
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Minari
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
This looks to be a two-horse race between Critics Choice winner Promising Young Woman and Globes' choice The Trial of the Chicago 7. Aaron Sorkin's main hurdle here seems to be getting nominated, having been snubbed by the writers' branch for his work on Steve Jobs. Now that he's in, though, it'll be hard for the Academy to deny him a win. Promising Young Woman could win, of course, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a real heavyweight this awards season and, even if it doesn't win anywhere else, this is likely the place it'll be rewarded.
Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could win: Promising Young Woman
Should win: Judas and the Black Messiah
Should've been nominated: The King of Staten Island
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- The Father
- Nomadland
- One Night in Miami...
- The White Tiger
Kemp Powers is a bit of an all-star in 2021, having both adapted One Night in Miami from his own play and co-written Soul with Pete Docter and Mike Jones. It would make sense to reward him here, but One Night in Miami is missing a Best Picture nomination and no film this century has won this category without a nod for top prize. That really only leaves Nomadland and The Father, and while the former won Critics Choice and is expertly-adapted from its source material, it just doesn't have the feel of a Screenplay winner at the Oscars, which is typically more showy in its writing and dialogue-driven. The Father may be a bit of an untested winner here, but it could very easily run the table for the rest of the season.
Will win: The Father
Could and should win: Nomadland
Should've been nominated: I'm Thinking of Ending Things
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Mank
- News of the World
- Nomadland
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank's gorgeous, black-and-white photography could still take Best Cinematography, but Joshua James Richards' work on Nomadland, with its haunting horizons and magic-hour melancholy, is fairly undeniable. It's also swept this award thus far in the season, giving it a fairly clear path to the Oscar.
Will and should win: Nomadland
Could win: Mank
Should've been nominated: First Cow
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- Emma
- Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
- Mank
- Mulan
- Pinocchio
With only two Best Picture nominees in the category, this feels like a two-horse race between Ma Rainey and Mank, with the latter facing the stat of no black-and-white film winning here since the Academy changed from having separate categories for black-and-white and color films. This should be a fairly easy victory for previous winner Ann Roth, who at 89 ties the record for oldest nominee in Oscar history, with James Ivory and Agnès Varda.
Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could and should win: Mank
Should've been nominated: The Personal History of David Copperfield
