Summary

• Kevin Costner's epic Western Horizon: An American Saga is suffering in box office tracking.
• Its opening weekend projections have shrunk from $17 million to $12 million.
• This is a grim result for an intended four-part epic where the first two chapters cost $100 million.

The box office projections for Horizon: An American Saga are sinking. The movie is the first of a four-part movie series directed, co-written, and produced by star Kevin Costner that depicts the Old West during the time of the Civil War with an ensemble cast that also includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Giovanni Ribisi, Tatanka Means, and Thomas Haden Church. The first two chapters of the Horizon: An American Saga, which cost an estimated $100 million together, are set to be released in theaters two months apart, on June 28 and then August 16.

The latest "What I'm Hearing..." newsletter from Puck reports that the box office projections for Horizon: An American Saga are dwindling as the release date gets closer. Recent tracking showed that the movie was en route to a $12 million opening weekend, but it was previously hitting $17 million just weeks before. The report includes a quote from The Quorum's David Herrin that reveals that the movie is "struggling in all categories, including unaided awareness, total awareness, and interest," failing to capture demographics other than men over 35.

Horizon: An American Saga’s Financial Woes Explained

Has Kevin Costner Spent His Yellowstone Goodwill?

It makes sense why Horizon: An American Saga would seem like a sure bet, to the point that Costner invested tens of millions of dollars of his own money in the project. The star comes with a tremendous amount of goodwill in the genre, having led the Taylor Sheridan neo-Western drama Yellowstone, which has spawned a sprawling television franchise, for five-and-a-half seasons. However, the behind-the-scenes drama involving his exit may have tarnished his reputation, or potentially the Yellowstone audience simply isn't as interested in seeing Costner perform a similar role set more than a century in the past.

The Horizon: An American Saga reviews are not helping. After the movie premiered at Cannes and early reviews began to come in, it landed a relatively low Rotten Tomatoes score of 41%. While that is subject to change as more reviews are added, the Rotten splat may have scared away potential viewers who were on the fence about the project. Placing the first two movies so close together on the schedule may also cause a grim domino effect if word-of-mouth on the first movie is as negative as these early reviews.

27 Tomatometer-approved critics have weighed in on Horizon: An American Saga at the time of writing.

It is worth noting that tracking in the modern era of wobbly post-pandemic box office has become more unpredictable, though usually what results from that is movies falling short of projections rather than vice versa. However, if it lands higher than projections, per Costner's assertion that Yellowstone viewers aren't being included in tracking for Horizon: An American Saga, the first movie still may not make a profit. Movies typically need to earn twice their production budget just to end up in the black, which would likely place Chapter 1's break-even point at $100 million or higher.

Horizon: An American Sage releases in theaters on June 28.

Source: Puck