Even before Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the studio has doubled its market share (15.59% to 31.96%) and could triple its worldwide grosses (from $3.7 billion in 2014).
From 2015-2018 total worldwide grosses have hovered in the $6.1-$7.1 billion range, but does Disney’s 2020 slate has the potential to repeat 2019's eleven-figure box office returns, or will Disney see a significant (over $2 billion) drop in its box office for the first time since Bob Iger spearheaded the acquisitions of Marvel, Pixar, and Lucasfilm?
The staples of Disney’s past decade of success have been Star Wars, the MCU, and Pixar. The original animation division has seen break-out hits like Solo: A Star Wars Story ($392,924,807). But 2011 was the last year that a film that wasn’t part of the Star Wars-MCU-Pixar wings of the studio claimed the top spot on Disney’s chart, and in 2019, over half of Disney's box office revenues came from the three MCU or Pixar releases.
So when we’re looking for potential breakout hits in 2020, these franchises are a good place to start. Disney doesn’t have a Star Wars film in development slated for 2020. In the MCU, two entries will hit theaters: Inside Out; its $857 million falls short of Toy Story 4’s billion-dollar worldwide gross. In these three major arms of Disney’s box office dominance, 2020’s offerings are likely to fall short of 2019’s.
The updated live-action remake of Free Guy expects to be a major player in the summer box office, but we're comparing films produced and released under the Disney banner in 2019 and 2020.
In the end, Disney is not hurting. It will continue to see growth in its streaming service, Disney+, and some of these films will be huge events and weekend winners at the box office. But the prospect of repeating another eleven-figure return seems unlikely in 2020. Over $10 billion is a mark no studio has ever achieved, and though records are made to be broken, this one might have to wait at least another year.
