There are sure to be big hits at the 2020 box office, but there are also quite a few movies that may struggle considering a variety of factors. Some of the movies that are likely to be box office hits are superhero blockbusters and highly-anticipated sequels and remakes. Unfortunately, there are always plenty of other movies that tend to either flop at the box office or underperform.
Interestingly, 2020 looks to be a vastly different year than 2019. First off, there's no Star Wars movie this year and the Marvel Cinematic Universe is taking a step back by only releasing two movies instead of three. Furthermore, the blockbuster films that are releasing aren't all part of groundbreaking franchises, though they are still household names. And to top it all off, Hollywood studios are trying to experiment with a variety of genres and properties.
The fact is, at this point, movies that would've been astounding successes 10 or 20 years ago no longer work in the grand scheme of things. With that in mind, here are the biggest box office risks of 2020.
Sonic the Hedgehog
To say Video game movies don't have strong box office track records and Paramount Pictures has an even worse modern box office track record with launching family titles, and while the overhauled design of the titular lead appeased longtime Sonic fans, it's hard to say if the film is generating much interest from the broader public. However, Paramount wisely decided to move Sonic from a crowded November 2019 release to a President's Day weekend release date, a holiday frame that's been kind to plenty of family movies in the past. So with no other major family movies releasing at the same time, Sonic could end up succeeding.
Bloodshot
Vin Diesel has managed to have major roles in two of the biggest franchises in history - the cinematic universe based on Valiant Comics properties for Sony/Columbia seem to have been scuttled in recent months. Still, live-action superhero movies are usually reliable box office moneymakers, and being the lone action blockbuster of March 2020 could help Bloodshot beat out the odds and give Diesel one of his biggest non-F&F/MCU successes to date.
The New Mutants
Dark Phoenix. However, horror movies have been scoring unprecedented levels of successful box office in recent years and fusing superheroes with that genre could be a recipe for box office glory. The fact that The New Mutants is a far cheaper project than Dark Phoenix means the bar for box office success is much lower. After all it's been through, The New Mutants even getting released at all feels like a victory in and of itself.
Artemis Fowl
In the middle of Disney's 2019 and 2020 release slates centered heavily on live-action remakes and superhero movies is Tomorrowland.
However, last year's Aladdin proved that the right Disney title can succeed in this timeframe and the extreme popularity of the Artemis Fowl book series could help life it to box office success. Its biggest hurdles at this point are the high level of family movie competition in May 2020 from the likes of Scoob! and a new SpongeBob movie, as well as the fact that Disney has, puzzlingly, failed to restart the Artemis Fowl marketing (a teaser for its original August 2019 release was dropped over Thanksgiving 2018) several months prior to its release.
Top Gun: Maverick
Much like Vin Diesel, modern-day Tom Cruise is a reliable moneymaker in one big franchise (in this case, Jurassic World's release.
Morbius
The next stage of Sony's Marvel universe is about to arrive. Following in the footsteps of box office juggernaut Venom is Tenet. The marketing for Morbius will have to work overtime to make this movie stand out in a crowded marketplace, though its release date and the strong box office track record of Marvel movies do give it some advantages of its own.
BIOS
BIOS is directed by Miguel Sapochnik and is an apocalyptic take on the man-and-his-dog story, as one of the last people on Earth (played by Tom Hanks) builds a robot pal for himself and his dog. While Hanks has had a handful of box office misfires, like Larry Crowne and Inferno, over the years, he's usually a reliable draw, as most recently seen by the sleeper hit A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. However, October 2020 is packed with options for moviegoers thanks to Death on the Nile and Venom 2. An original title like BIOS could get lost in the shuffle quite easily if Universal/Amblin doesn't put together the right marketing campaign that emphasizes the inspirational qualities Hanks' previous hits are based on.
Snake Eyes
Taking a cue from their 2018 title Snake Eyes' shoulders and it remains to be seen if Paramount can put together a marketing campaign, as well as a well-received movie, that can reverse the downward box office trajectory the G.I. Joe movies. Will people see this new movie as a refreshing back-to-basics approach for the G.I. Joe series or will moviegoers dismiss it as a cash grab? It could go either way, but one advantage in Snake Eyes' corner is that Bumblebee did end up doing decent business at the box office, so there are far worse models for Snake Eyes to slavishly adhere to.
Godzilla vs. Kong
Since November 2008, every single pre-Thanksgiving weekend, save for 2018 when Godzilla vs. Kong. What's interesting, though, is that Godzilla vs. Kong belongs to the MonsterVerse, which has never released a movie approaching that $229 million minimum. To boot, the last MonsterVerse title, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, hit a new domestic box office low for the franchise. Pairing Godzilla with an iconic beast like King Kong over a holiday weekend will likely ensure a noticeably bigger box office haul than King of the Monsters. However, the aforementioned Fantastic Beasts sequel showed that not every pre-Thanksgiving blockbuster finds box office success, which casts a dark shadow over this film.
Dune
Warner Bros/Legendary couldn't have picked a better release date for their new big-budget take on Kong: Skull Island.
