to a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars - where it should at the very least dominate the technical categories.
However fair this may be, 2049's Academy Award chances took a bit of a hit when the film underperformed at the box office. While there typically is no correlation between commercial gross and prestige nominations, genre pictures like Blade Runner usually need to post high numbers in order to be considered. After all, nobody pegged Scott's The Martian as Best Picture material until it opened to the tune of $54.3 million in its opening weekend - a figure many predicted Blade Runner to match or top. With 2049's box office run winding down to a close, we're going to take a look at its performance, both domestically and worldwide.
A Stateside Flop
Though Blade Runner 2049 won its opening weekend with $32.7 million, Warner Bros. wasn't exactly popping champagne bottles over that haul. The film wildly went below expectations, which indicated a debut in the range of $50+ million. There were a number of factors working in 2049's favor as it premiered, including the widespread acclaim and recognizability of the brand name. In 1982, the original Blade Runner was a notorious bomb, but its reputation improved exponentially in the decades since. It's now considered one of the best films ever made, with a ionate fan base eager to see the story continue. That being said, some may have overestimated how much of an outreach Blade Runner has.
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The main reason behind 2049's middling performance, as we've already detailed, is the simple fact that Star Wars in regards to marketability. Clocking in at nearly three hours didn't help matters either, limiting the number of daily screenings Blade Runner could secure. Although, other movies with similar runtimes have become blockbusters.
With this October Arrival, it was believed he could sell anything with his name, but that obviously isn't the case.
WB was certainly hoping for a stronger showing in the States, but throughout history, several films have been saved from box office purgatory by the international markets. Sometimes, a large showing in foreign countries can be enough to help a film turn a profit, but sadly, 2049 isn't getting much help there either. After all, it was a flop in China too.
No International Help
As we've explained before, the general rule of thumb is that in order for a film to recoup its money (including marketing costs), it needs to earn at least twice its production budget. This means that the break even point for Blade Runner 2049 is somewhere between $300 - 370 million, a figure it is nowhere near to crossing. Currently, its global total stands at $223.1 million, meaning if the movie were to end its run today, WB/Sony (the international distributor) would lose approximately $76.9 million at least, and around $146.9 million at the most. If it's closer to that latter number, we're approaching Geostorm territory in of being in the red.
With it bombing in China, Blade Runner's chances of turning things around are spent. It has now opened everywhere it was set for release, and multiplexes are about to get a double dose of comic book fare. IT drew in large crowds.
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It will be interesting to see if there are any longterm ramifications for how Blade Runner 2049 held up. Villeneuve is developing in talks to helm a Cleopatra biopic, neither of which would be cheap endeavors. Given the Oscar-nominee's sterling critical standing as one of this generation's finest filmmakers, one would hope that he will continue to have the clout he has earned over the last handful of years. Villeneuve did receive final cut of 2049 and the end result (in of quality) paid off, so this may be a matter of trying to keep his budgets in check while giving him creative freedom. Knocking a Blade Runner sequel out of the park had the potential to push Villeneuve into the stratosphere of a Christopher Nolan, but he doesn't have that kind of pull with casual moviegoers.
Much like the original, Blade Runner 2049 could find new life once it hits home media. With a number of highly-anticipated works coming out this fall and winter, general audiences may have been inclined to save their dollars for the likes of Ragnarok and The Last Jedi, waiting to see 2049 a different time. It should generate additional revenue on digital and Blu-ray, and while that probably won't be enough to push the film into the black, it ideally will make the ultimate losses less severe.
Conclusion
There sadly isn't any gray area here. Blade Runner 2049 was not a box office success and suffered a similar fate as the original film, more noteworthy for its technical prowess and thought-provoking narrative than its ability to sell tickets. Still, WB deserves credit for releasing the film as it was. They had to have known early on the odds of it becoming a runaway smash were slim, and they moved forward with it anyway, giving Villeneuve the leeway to tell the story he wanted with minimal interference. Executives could have demanded scenes be cut in order to shorten the runtime or change the marketing strategy, but everyone involved stuck to their guns.
Though 2049's open-ended conclusion leaves a third installment in the series possible, that is unlikely to occur now. The film industry is still a business first, and if this is the best Blade Runner could do in 2017, well after it had become an all-time classic, another entry probably wouldn't garner much interest regardless of when it came out. Fortunately, the sequel was crafted in a way that it stands on its own merits and works as a self-contained movie that doesn't need future films to address dangling threads and resolve character arcs. If this is the last we've seen of this particular dystopian future, fans will be happy with what they got.
